Here is a slightly different problem that might make it easier to see what's going on: Suppose, in a country with two families, that each family has children until it has either a boy or two children, then stops. What fraction of the births are female? There are nine ways the history of this country could play out. 1) B/B (that is, each family has one boy and then stops). This happens with probability 1/4. In this case the fraction of girls is 0. 2) B/GB (that is, the first family has aboy and then stops; the second has a girl and then a boy). This happens with probability 1/8. In this case the fraction of girls is 1/3. 3) B/GG. This happens with probability 1/8. In this case, the fraction of girls is 2/3. And so forth. Here are the nine scenarios, their probabilities and the fraction of girls in each case: 1) B/B probability 1/4 fraction of girls 0 2) B/GB probability 1/8 fraction of girls 1/3 3) B/GG probability 1/8 fraction of girls 2/3 4) GB/B probability 1/8 fraction of girls 1/3 5) GB/GB probability 1/16 fraction of girls 1/2 6) GB/GG probability 1/16 fraction of girls 3/4 7) GG/B probability 1/8 fraction of girls 2/3 8) GG/GB probability 1/16 fraction of girls 3/4 9) GG/GG probability 1/16 fraction of girls 1 The expected fraction of girls is therefore (1/4 x 0) + (1/8 x 1/3) + (1/8 x 2/3) + (1/8 x 1/3) + (1/16 x 1/2) + (1/16 x 3/4) + (1/8 x 2/3) + (1/16 x 3/4) + (1/16 x 1) which adds up to 7/16, not 1/2. So even though the expected number of girls equals the expected number of boys, the expected fraction of female births need not be 1/2.